Wheat & Canola Trends

Adam Pukalo |

Kansas and Minneapolis wheat saw spikes this month, but have since given back a lot of the gains.  

From May 2nd-May17th July Kansas increased $1.82/bu and July Minneapolis increased $1.17/bu. 

Whereas in that same timeframe Chicago wheat decreased 10 cents/bu.

Kansas farmers are expected to produce just 191.4 million bushels of wheat this year, the smallest since 1963, according to the latest monthly government forecast.

Participants on the Wheat Quality Council tour projected an even smaller harvest of 178 million bushels.

According to Reuters, Kansas farmers are intentionally spraying wheat fields with crop-killing chemicals and claiming insurance payouts more than normal, betting the grain is not worth harvesting, 

Abandoning fields will lead to a smaller U.S. wheat supply in the world's No. 5 wheat exporter, with stocks seen falling to a 16-year low. 

Nationally, winter-wheat farmers plan to abandon 33% of the acres they planted, the highest percentage since World War I, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in a May 12 report.

It seems like funds are positioning still for a rally in Kansas wheat, which may help the Minneapolis contract.


Minneapolis Wheat July Features - 1 Year

Chart sourced from Market Q

















Chicago Wheat July Futures - 1 Year

Chart sourced from Market Q

















Kansas City Wheat July Futures - 1 Year

Chart sourced from Market Q



















The Canadian Grain Commission reported producer deliveries of canola totaled 15.23 million tonnes so far for 2022/23.

Canola exports were significantly ahead of the year ago pace of 7.02 million tonnes. 

There have been reports of dry conditions across the Prairies.

This kept canola stable at the beginning of May.

However, July and November contracts have slid lower in recent weeks.

Palm and soybean oil have been trading sideways to lower, but have decreased like canola.

Soybeans seem to be firming on the charts as well.

We might be seeing some farms catching up on selling some new crop.

I have not been recommending farms protect at these levels. 

Canola July Futures - 1 Year 

Chart sourced from Market Q