Israel/Hamas Conflict & The Markets
I’ve been getting some questions lately about the potential market impact of Hamas’ brutal terrorist attack on Israel.
Looking at the numbers, after just a few trading days markets have been resilient overall.
Remember, markets are forward looking and typically will look ahead to the economy recovering from the initial shock even as some uncertainty persists.
Negative market behavior is not usually driven by the geopolitical event itself.
If you look back in history, the major market declines take place during or near a recession, not a geopolitical event.
There are a few risks that do remain that include the conflict to expand, and the Middle East remains a sensitive region.
Also, oil prices might have a higher sensitivity given the current inflationary environment we are in.
Overall, I have not changed my market outlook in response to this conflict, although I will continue to monitor it closely.